Calm down. There’s no reason to panic. We are only fifteen days into the war in the Middle East, the price of oil has surpassed one hundred dollars a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, missiles are flying over the Persian Gulf, and Trump announces on his social media, with the solemnity of someone posting a picture of their breakfast, that they are completely destroying the terrorist regime of Iran. All perfectly normal. Carry on with your lives.
On February 28, while diplomatic negotiations were taking place between Washington and Tehran, the United States and Israel unexpectedly launched a series of airstrikes on several Iranian cities. Unexpectedly, yes. While negotiations were ongoing. This detail is important because it says a lot about the kind of diplomacy practiced in the 21st century: the kind where one hand shakes yours and the other signs the bombing order.
The immediate result was, as expected, chaos. Iran responded by launching missiles and drones against Israel and against US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq. In other words, a trail of fire across half of the Middle East. The Gulf countries, which had not asked to participate in this performance, suddenly found themselves with missiles in their backyard. From the Gulf countries caught up in the conflict, the reaction was unanimous: "This is not our war." How right they are. It’s a pity no one asked them before starting.
Meanwhile, Trump managed the crisis as he manages everything: from the phone. He stated on social media that US forces have "unmatched firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time." Reassuring. In other times, presidents consulted with Congress before going to war. Now all it takes is a good internet connection and a desire to write in capital letters.
However, the situation in Iran is not one that invites easy tears either. The attacks resulted in the death of Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, and other high-ranking officials, as well as thousands of civilian casualties. Among them, those from an elementary school. There’s always a school. In every war in the world, without exception, there is a school. As if history cannot move forward without that detail that breaks you in two. And the regime that succeeded the deceased, led by his son Mojtaba, has not appeared in public for fifteen days, with rumours about his health ranging from a broken foot to something considerably worse. A Supreme Leader who cannot lead. Poetic, the situation.
Meanwhile, Spain has evacuated more than eight thousand citizens from the area. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this is the largest evacuation in history carried out by Spain. A historic record. We could have achieved it without him.
Formula 1 has cancelled its Grand Prix in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Gas prices are rising across Europe. The global economy is holding its breath. And the UN is calling, as always, for dialogue. Secretary-General Guterres, the eternal watchman of catastrophes that no one listens to, stated that the attacks have caused immense suffering and have brought the region to a breaking point, insisting that de-escalation and dialogue are the only way out. He is right. He has been for thirty years. And for thirty years, no one has paid him the slightest attention.
This is what we have. A war that began while peace was being negotiated, managed by a man who tweets combat orders, in a region where civilians always pay the same bill. The 21st century has been promising for twenty-six years that we would be smarter than the 20th.
We are still waiting.
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